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Francisco Comesana vs Nick Hardt — Prediction

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Francisco Comesana

Argentina

75.88%

Nick Hardt

Dominican Rep.

24.12%

Average Odds

1.04  /  1.04

Market probability

50.00%  /  50.00%

Why This Prediction?

Francisco Comesana is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1770 vs 1610), a higher Elo rating (1763 vs 1603) and a stronger serve (68.0% vs 54.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1763.1 Elo 1603.5
1770.4 Elo (surface) 1610.1
110 Wins (Challenger) 87
105 Wins (surface) 65
7 Last 15 form 8
2 Head-to-head wins 1
1.048 Dominance ratio 1.041
125 Rank 281
26.0 Age 26.1
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francisco Comesana

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Nick Hardt

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Comesana Nick Hardt

1st Serve In %

62.6%
66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%
59.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%
44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%
35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%
52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39
0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25
0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%
61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%
67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%
46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%
30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%
49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33
0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18
0.45

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Comesana Nick Hardt

Break Points Saved %

66.7%
42.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%
35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%
39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francisco Comesana 2 – 1 Nick Hardt

Clay San Marino CH · 2024-07-29

R16

Francisco Comesana #101

Nick Hardt #180

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4
10 Aces 0
3 Double Faults 5
105 Service Points 115
67 First Serve In 74
48 First Serve Won 47
17 Second Serve Won 18
6 Break Points Saved 6
9 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Campinas CH · 2023-10-02

R32

Francisco Comesana #126

Nick Hardt #259

7-5 0-6 6-2
5 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 6
87 Service Points 72
46 First Serve In 37
31 First Serve Won 31
19 Second Serve Won 15
2 Break Points Saved 1
6 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Salvador De Bahia CH · 2022-05-02

R32

Nick Hardt #319

Francisco Comesana #334

7-6(6) 6-4
4 Aces 3
6 Double Faults 3
84 Service Points 69
51 First Serve In 53
27 First Serve Won 26
17 Second Serve Won 8
10 Break Points Saved 2
15 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Francisco Comesana — Last 10

L L W L L W L L L W

Nick Hardt — Last 10

L W L L L W L L W W