ATP tennis predict — Francisco Comesana vs Felipe Meligeni Alves

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · R16 16:00

Predicted probability

Francisco Comesana

Argentina

71.07%

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

28.93%

Average Odds

1.38 / 2.75

Market probability

66.59% / 33.41%

Why This Prediction?

Francisco Comesana is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1763 vs 1666), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1770 vs 1700) and a stronger serve (68.0% vs 56.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1763.1 Elo 1666.3

1770.4 Elo (surface) 1700.4

110 Wins (Challenger) 155

105 Wins (surface) 147

7 Last 15 form 8

4 Head-to-head wins 1

1.048 Dominance ratio 0.865

125 Rank 453

26.0 Age 28.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francisco Comesana

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Comesana Felipe Meligeni Alves

1st Serve In %

62.6%

67.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

65.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.6%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Comesana Felipe Meligeni Alves

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

65.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

30.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francisco Comesana 4 – 1 Felipe Meligeni Alves

Clay Santiago · 2025-02-24

R32

Francisco Comesana #67

Felipe Meligeni Alves #194

7-6(3) 7-6(4)

8 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

84 Service Points 91

51 First Serve In 65

39 First Serve Won 47

23 Second Serve Won 13

8 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Sao Paulo CH · 2024-11-18

QF

Francisco Comesana #102

Felipe Meligeni Alves #157

6-3 6-4

13 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 61

41 First Serve In 41

34 First Serve Won 27

9 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Santo Domingo CH · 2023-08-07

QF

Francisco Comesana #170

Felipe Meligeni Alves #168

6-4 0-0 RET

3 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 0

31 Service Points 36

18 First Serve In 23

14 First Serve Won 16

8 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Lima CH · 2022-10-24

R32

Felipe Meligeni Alves #169

Francisco Comesana #227

6-2 6-0

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 0

53 Service Points 61

39 First Serve In 42

25 First Serve Won 18

6 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 10

6 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Buenos Aires CH · 2022-06-20

SF

Francisco Comesana #239

Felipe Meligeni Alves #213

6-3 6-2

2 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 1

48 Service Points 58

34 First Serve In 44

25 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Francisco Comesana vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Francisco Comesana — Last 10

Felipe Meligeni Alves — Last 10