ATP tennis predict — Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik

ATP Hard Beijing · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

37.47%

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

62.53%

Average Odds

2.60 / 1.49

Market probability

36.43% / 63.57%

Why This Prediction?

Jakub Mensik is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1992 vs 1946), a stronger serve (65.0% vs 59.7% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (17 vs 3).

Player Comparison

2024.6 Elo 2042.5

1946.3 Elo (surface) 1992.1

191 Wins 108

69 Wins (surface) 81

9 Last 15 form 9

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.869 Dominance ratio 1.043

22 Rank 14

28.1 Age 21.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francisco Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–5L · 61.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Cerundolo Jakub Mensik

1st Serve In %

53.1%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

21.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.0%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.15

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francisco Cerundolo Jakub Mensik

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

62.9%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

47.0%

54.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francisco Cerundolo 2 – 0 Jakub Mensik

Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

QF

Francisco Cerundolo #21

Jakub Mensik #23

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2

7 Aces 11

5 Double Faults 2

90 Service Points 95

57 First Serve In 62

42 First Serve Won 50

21 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Beijing · 2024-09-26

R32

Francisco Cerundolo #31

Jakub Mensik #66

7-6(4) 6-1

7 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 5

89 Service Points 56

56 First Serve In 27

39 First Serve Won 15

15 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 7