ATP tennis predict — Francesco Passaro vs Tom Gentzsch

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Francesco Passaro

Italy

48.95%

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

51.05%

Average Odds

1.93 / 1.81

Market probability

48.40% / 51.60%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1682.4 Elo 1771.0

1672.7 Elo (surface) 1684.1

44 Wins 3

23 Wins (surface) 1

9 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.181 Dominance ratio 0.893

207 Rank 145

25.6 Age 23.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Tom Gentzsch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Tom Gentzsch

1st Serve In %

60.4%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

34.2%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Tom Gentzsch

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

48.8%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Passaro 0 – 0 Tom Gentzsch

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Francesco Passaro #207

Tom Gentzsch #145

7-6 6-4

6 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

67 Service Points 74

42 First Serve In 49

33 First Serve Won 36

14 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 3

18 Winners 24

8 Unforced Errors 26

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Francesco Passaro vs Tom Gentzsch — Prediction