ATP tennis predict — Francesco Passaro vs Tiago Torres

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Francesco Passaro

Italy

75.17%

Tiago Torres

Portugal

24.83%

Average Odds

1.20 / 3.67

Market probability

75.36% / 24.64%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Passaro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1776 vs 1605), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1748 vs 1609) and more wins on clay courts (108 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1776.1 Elo 1604.9

1747.7 Elo (surface) 1609.3

126 Wins (Challenger) 14

108 Wins (surface) 9

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.746 Dominance ratio 0.969

229 Rank 365

25.8 Age 24.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Tiago Torres

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-07-20.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Tiago Torres

1st Serve In %

60.4%

54.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

65.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

35.8%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Tiago Torres

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Passaro and Tiago Torres have never played each other.

Francesco Passaro vs Tiago Torres — Prediction