ATP tennis predict — Francesco Passaro vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · R16 20:30

Predicted probability

Francesco Passaro

Italy

64.11%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

35.89%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.43

Market probability

61.68% / 38.32%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Passaro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1767 vs 1708), the advantage of playing in his home country and a stronger serve (61.7% vs 60.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1766.6 Elo 1708.2

1727.8 Elo (surface) 1727.4

122 Wins (Challenger) 222

104 Wins (surface) 219

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.746 Dominance ratio 0.934

207 Rank 234

25.7 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

60.4%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

34.2%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

48.8%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Passaro 0 – 1 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

Francesco Passaro #207

7-5 6-1

3 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 23

17 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Santiago CH · 2024-03-11

QF

Juan Pablo Varillas #110

Francesco Passaro #233

7-5 4-6 7-6(6)

4 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 3

126 Service Points 116

74 First Serve In 82

52 First Serve Won 57

27 Second Serve Won 14

9 Break Points Saved 10

13 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Francesco Passaro vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction