ATP tennis predict — Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Francesco Passaro

Italy

66.78%

Felix Gill

Great Britain

33.22%

Average Odds

1.84 / 1.76

Market probability

48.89% / 51.11%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Passaro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1672 vs 1578), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1653 vs 1596) and more wins on hard courts (22 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1672.2 Elo 1577.5

1653.1 Elo (surface) 1596.2

43 Wins 1

22 Wins (surface) 0

8 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.142 Dominance ratio 0.832

222 Rank 221

25.6 Age 24.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Felix Gill

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Felix Gill

1st Serve In %

60.4%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

57.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

43.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

34.2%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Passaro Felix Gill

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

48.8%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Passaro 0 – 0 Felix Gill

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Francesco Passaro #207

Felix Gill #213

7-6 6-2

9 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 3

70 Service Points 67

44 First Serve In 34

39 First Serve Won 22

11 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 6

30 Winners 15

12 Unforced Errors 6

1.8 Average Odds 1.8

Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill — Prediction