ATP tennis predict — Francesco Maestrelli vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Challenger Hard Rennes challenger · R16 12:30

Predicted probability

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

59.45%

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

40.55%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.05

Market probability

69.48% / 30.52%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Maestrelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1651 vs 1613), more wins on hard courts (8 vs 0) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1714 vs 1691).

Player Comparison

1651.0 Elo 1613.0

1713.6 Elo (surface) 1691.2

135 Wins (Challenger) 10

55 Wins (surface) 9

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.080 Dominance ratio 1.111

169 Rank 547

23.7 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Yanis Ghazouani Durand

1st Serve In %

64.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.45

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

61.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

61.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 0 Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Hard Rennes challenger · 2026-09-17

R16

Francesco Maestrelli #169

Yanis Ghazouani Durand #547

4-6 7-6 6-3

16 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 12

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

61 First Serve Won 40

13 Second Serve Won 14

10 Break Points Saved 2

15 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.0

Francesco Maestrelli vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand — Prediction