ATP tennis predict — Francesco Maestrelli vs Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 10:30

Predicted probability

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

68.10%

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni

USA

31.90%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.50

Market probability

73.22% / 26.78%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Maestrelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1720 vs 1530), a higher Elo rating (1648 vs 1512) and fewer double faults per game (0.15 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1648.0 Elo 1512.1

1720.4 Elo (surface) 1530.5

133 Wins (Challenger) 88

53 Wins (surface) 69

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.080 Dominance ratio 1.309

168 Rank 457

23.7 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni

1st Serve In %

64.4%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

38.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.52

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

58.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

61.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

57.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 0 Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Francesco Maestrelli #168

Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni #457

6-7 6-1 6-4

4 Aces 10

4 Double Faults 7

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

55 First Serve Won 40

15 Second Serve Won 23

6 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Francesco Maestrelli vs Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni — Prediction