ATP tennis predict — Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · 1. round 12:30

Predicted probability

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

26.52%

Oliver Tarvet

Great Britain

73.48%

Average Odds

3.57 / 1.26

Market probability

26.09% / 73.91%

Why This Prediction?

Oliver Tarvet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1875 vs 1642), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1761 vs 1692) and a stronger return game (40.0% vs 32.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1642.3 Elo 1875.2

1692.1 Elo (surface) 1761.2

136 Wins (Challenger) 17

56 Wins (surface) 15

5 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.080 Dominance ratio 1.105

171 Rank 307

23.8 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Oliver Tarvet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Oliver Tarvet

1st Serve In %

64.4%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Oliver Tarvet

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

70.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

61.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli and Oliver Tarvet have never played each other.

Francesco Maestrelli vs Oliver Tarvet — Prediction