ATP tennis predict — Francesco Maestrelli vs Maks Kasnikowski

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · QF 11:30

Predicted probability

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

49.54%

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

50.46%

Average Odds

2.08 / 1.70

Market probability

44.97% / 55.03%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1656.0 Elo 1701.8

1729.6 Elo (surface) 1643.3

134 Wins (Challenger) 109

54 Wins (surface) 66

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.080 Dominance ratio 1.047

168 Rank 258

23.7 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Maks Kasnikowski

1st Serve In %

64.4%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Maks Kasnikowski

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 1 Maks Kasnikowski

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Maks Kasnikowski #258

Francesco Maestrelli #168

6-0 2-6 6-1

2 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 25

5 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Perugia CH · 2024-06-10

R32

Maks Kasnikowski #243

Francesco Maestrelli #191

6-3 6-3

7 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

52 Service Points 67

30 First Serve In 43

27 First Serve Won 25

12 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Francesco Maestrelli vs Maks Kasnikowski — Prediction