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Francesco Maestrelli vs Lukas Neumayer — Prediction

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

72.13%

Average Odds

2.85  /  1.39

Market probability

32.78%  /  67.22%

Why This Prediction?

Lukas Neumayer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1669 vs 1541), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1684 vs 1581) and a stronger return game (40.7% vs 35.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1540.9 Elo 1668.6
1581.3 Elo (surface) 1684.0
131 Wins (Challenger) 113
79 Wins (surface) 103
7 Last 15 form 11
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.976 Dominance ratio 1.100
149 Rank 173
23.6 Age 23.9
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Lukas Neumayer

1st Serve In %

64.4%
62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%
72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%
55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%
29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%
53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.45
0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%
58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%
62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%
47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%
35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%
39.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.63
0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Lukas Neumayer

Break Points Saved %

60.3%
63.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%
43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%
40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli 00 Lukas Neumayer

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28
6-4 6-0
6 Aces 0
2 Double Faults 1
43 Service Points 49
24 First Serve In 33
17 First Serve Won 17
16 Second Serve Won 8
2 Break Points Saved 1
2 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Francesco Maestrelli — Last 10

L L W W L W W L L L

Lukas Neumayer — Last 10

W W L W W L W L W W