ATP tennis predict — Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

39.48%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

60.52%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.12

Market probability

55.94% / 44.06%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Pablo Varillas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1649 vs 1558), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1667 vs 1602) and more wins on clay courts (52 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1558.4 Elo 1648.8

1601.9 Elo (surface) 1666.8

132 Wins (Challenger) 215

80 Wins (surface) 212

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.992 Dominance ratio 0.968

149 Rank 274

23.6 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

64.4%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 0 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-30

R16

Juan Pablo Varillas #274

Francesco Maestrelli #149

7-6 4-6 6-3

15 Aces 6

8 Double Faults 4

120 Service Points 126

75 First Serve In 65

56 First Serve Won 47

15 Second Serve Won 29

10 Break Points Saved 7

13 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction