ATP tennis predict — Francesco Maestrelli vs Bu Yunchaokete

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 21:15

Predicted probability

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

24.40%

Bu Yunchaokete

China

75.60%

Average Odds

3.72 / 1.25

Market probability

25.15% / 74.85%

Why This Prediction?

Bu Yunchaokete is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1814 vs 1549), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1726 vs 1512) and a stronger serve (68.7% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1548.8 Elo 1814.1

1511.6 Elo (surface) 1726.4

12 Wins 34

8 Wins (surface) 29

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.852 Dominance ratio 1.000

161 Rank 118

23.6 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Bu Yunchaokete

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Bu Yunchaokete

1st Serve In %

64.4%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

79.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

43.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Bu Yunchaokete

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

40.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

38.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

18.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 0 Bu Yunchaokete

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Bu Yunchaokete #118

Francesco Maestrelli #161

7-6 6-4

6 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 72

40 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 32

10 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 2

22 Winners 10

32 Unforced Errors 24

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Francesco Maestrelli vs Bu Yunchaokete — Prediction