ATP tennis predict — Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Nagel

Challenger Hard Rennes challenger · 1. round 12:30

Predicted probability

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

83.27%

Arthur Nagel

France

16.73%

Average Odds

1.30 / 3.35

Market probability

72.04% / 27.96%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Maestrelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1645 vs 1445), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1707 vs 1448) and more career match wins (134 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1644.9 Elo 1444.8

1706.9 Elo (surface) 1447.6

134 Wins (Challenger) 2

54 Wins (surface) 1

5 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.080 Dominance ratio 0.873

169 Rank 357

23.7 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Arthur Nagel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Arthur Nagel

1st Serve In %

64.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.45

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.1%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Maestrelli Arthur Nagel

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.0%

53.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Maestrelli 0 – 0 Arthur Nagel

Hard Rennes challenger · 2026-09-16

1. round

Francesco Maestrelli #169

Arthur Nagel #357

6-4 7-6

12 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

43 First Serve Won 33

11 Second Serve Won 10

9 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Nagel — Prediction