ATP tennis predict — Francesco Forti vs Michele Mecarelli

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · 1. round 10:05

Predicted probability

Francesco Forti

Italy

54.38%

Michele Mecarelli

Italy

45.62%

Average Odds

1.30 / 3.27

Market probability

71.55% / 28.45%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1561.3 Elo 1539.5

1583.1 Elo (surface) 1520.1

93 Wins (Challenger) 4

75 Wins (surface) 2

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.993 Dominance ratio 1.014

357 Rank 950

27.0 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Forti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Michele Mecarelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Forti Michele Mecarelli

1st Serve In %

56.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.48

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.56

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.1%

36.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Forti Michele Mecarelli

Break Points Saved %

40.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

21.4%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

51.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Forti 0 – 0 Michele Mecarelli

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Francesco Forti #357

Michele Mecarelli #950

3-6 6-2 6-4

5 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 4

88 Service Points 67

63 First Serve In 35

42 First Serve Won 21

12 Second Serve Won 17

9 Break Points Saved 2

13 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Francesco Forti vs Michele Mecarelli — Prediction