ATP tennis predict — Francesco Ferrari vs Gianmarco Ferrari

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Francesco Ferrari

Italy

28.17%

Gianmarco Ferrari

Italy

71.83%

Average Odds

4.53 / 1.18

Market probability

20.67% / 79.33%

Why This Prediction?

Gianmarco Ferrari is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1365 vs 1234), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1398 vs 1314) and more wins on clay courts (24 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1233.8 Elo 1364.6

1314.5 Elo (surface) 1397.6

5 Wins (Challenger) 30

2 Wins (surface) 24

3 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.754 Dominance ratio 1.062

1097 Rank 517

29.2 Age 25.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Francesco Ferrari

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Gianmarco Ferrari

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Ferrari Gianmarco Ferrari

1st Serve In %

—

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

41.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.8%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

57.8%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

57.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.15

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Francesco Ferrari Gianmarco Ferrari

Break Points Saved %

—

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.6%

31.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Francesco Ferrari 0 – 0 Gianmarco Ferrari

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Gianmarco Ferrari #517

Francesco Ferrari #1097

7-6 7-6

2 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 3

71 Service Points 98

43 First Serve In 64

27 First Serve Won 41

15 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.5

Francesco Ferrari vs Gianmarco Ferrari — Prediction