ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Valentin Vacherot

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 01:10

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

70.38%

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

29.62%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.56

Market probability

62.90% / 37.10%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1890 vs 1734), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1831 vs 1777) and better recent form (13 wins in his last 15 matches vs 9).

Player Comparison

1889.8 Elo 1734.0

1831.1 Elo (surface) 1776.8

298 Wins 52

206 Wins (surface) 31

11 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.056 Dominance ratio 1.030

12 Rank 23

28.6 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Valentin Vacherot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Valentin Vacherot

1st Serve In %

52.4%

63.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

53.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Valentin Vacherot

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 0 – 0 Valentin Vacherot

Hard US Open · 2026-09-05

3. round

Frances Tiafoe #12

Valentin Vacherot #23

6-4 6-2 6-4

12 Aces 6

7 Double Faults 2

92 Service Points 80

46 First Serve In 54

35 First Serve Won 46

19 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 3

34 Winners 30

27 Unforced Errors 13

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Frances Tiafoe vs Valentin Vacherot — Prediction