ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Rei Sakamoto

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 01:10

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

57.97%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

42.03%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.99

Market probability

76.15% / 23.85%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1884 vs 1737), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1824 vs 1677) and a stronger return game (36.6% vs 32.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1883.7 Elo 1737.4

1823.9 Elo (surface) 1677.2

297 Wins 18

205 Wins (surface) 14

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.071 Dominance ratio 0.988

12 Rank 157

28.6 Age 20.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

52.4%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 0 – 0 Rei Sakamoto

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Frances Tiafoe #12

Rei Sakamoto #157

6-3 7-6 7-5

19 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

99 Service Points 118

58 First Serve In 75

42 First Serve Won 53

20 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

38 Winners 23

40 Unforced Errors 18

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Frances Tiafoe vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction