ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Martin Damm

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

67.94%

Martin Damm

USA

32.06%

Average Odds

1.24 / 4.06

Market probability

76.60% / 23.40%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1878 vs 1721), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1818 vs 1636) and more wins on hard courts (204 vs 22).

Player Comparison

1877.8 Elo 1721.2

1817.8 Elo (surface) 1635.9

296 Wins 31

204 Wins (surface) 22

11 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.090 Dominance ratio 1.161

12 Rank 90

28.6 Age 22.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Martin Damm

1st Serve In %

52.4%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

77.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.76

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

79.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.86

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Martin Damm

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

68.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 1 – 0 Martin Damm

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Frances Tiafoe #12

Martin Damm #90

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4

28 Aces 12

11 Double Faults 6

157 Service Points 156

89 First Serve In 85

73 First Serve Won 64

30 Second Serve Won 39

6 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

72 Winners 39

64 Unforced Errors 29

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

R64

Frances Tiafoe #17

Martin Damm #431

6-4 7-5 6-7(8) 7-5

13 Aces 27

1 Double Faults 7

123 Service Points 142

77 First Serve In 87

66 First Serve Won 68

34 Second Serve Won 32

3 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Frances Tiafoe vs Martin Damm — Prediction