ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 01:15

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

58.76%

Marin Cilic

Croatia

41.24%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.78

Market probability

65.88% / 34.12%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1842 vs 1794) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.11).

Player Comparison

1842.3 Elo 1794.0

1776.5 Elo (surface) 1790.8

290 Wins 636

198 Wins (surface) 393

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.915 Dominance ratio 1.004

20 Rank 85

28.5 Age 37.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marin Cilic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Marin Cilic

1st Serve In %

52.4%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

1.02

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Marin Cilic

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

72.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 0 – 2 Marin Cilic

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Frances Tiafoe #20

Marin Cilic #85

5-7 6-2 6-2

9 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 4

77 Service Points 102

49 First Serve In 66

41 First Serve Won 48

16 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 7

24 Winners 27

29 Unforced Errors 54

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Clay Davis Cup WG SF: CRO vs USA · 2018-09-14

RR

Marin Cilic #6

Frances Tiafoe #40

6-1 6-3 7-6(5)

13 Aces 9

1 Double Faults 4

91 Service Points 89

60 First Serve In 58

52 First Serve Won 34

14 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Laver Cup · 2017-09-22

RR

Marin Cilic #5

Frances Tiafoe #72

7-6(3) 7-6(5)

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -