ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Sonego

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 04:10

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

74.28%

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

25.72%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.39

Market probability

60.51% / 39.49%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1776 vs 1585), a higher Elo rating (1838 vs 1746) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1837.5 Elo 1746.0

1775.9 Elo (surface) 1584.6

291 Wins 214

199 Wins (surface) 110

10 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 3

1.166 Dominance ratio 0.944

23 Rank 88

28.6 Age 31.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Lorenzo Sonego

1st Serve In %

52.4%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

59.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Lorenzo Sonego

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 1 – 3 Lorenzo Sonego

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-17

2. round

Frances Tiafoe #23

Lorenzo Sonego #88

6-3 6-4

7 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 0

47 Service Points 55

31 First Serve In 30

23 First Serve Won 26

9 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 2

16 Winners 22

15 Unforced Errors 11

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2023-10-02

R64

Lorenzo Sonego #59

Frances Tiafoe #13

2-6 6-2 6-3

9 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 77

54 First Serve In 52

43 First Serve Won 35

8 Second Serve Won 11

6 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2023-03-20

R32

Lorenzo Sonego #59

Frances Tiafoe #14

6-3 6-4

8 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 3

45 Service Points 48

34 First Serve In 35

31 First Serve Won 29

9 Second Serve Won 4

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Davis Cup Finals QF: ITA vs USA · 2022-11-24

RR

Lorenzo Sonego #45

Frances Tiafoe #19

6-3 7-6(7)

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2022-10-31

R64

Frances Tiafoe #21

Lorenzo Sonego #51

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 8

0 Double Faults 0

49 Service Points 61

32 First Serve In 42

27 First Serve Won 32

13 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Sonego — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe — Last 10

Lorenzo Sonego — Last 10