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Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · QF 01:10

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

63.73%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

36.27%

Average Odds

1.91  /  1.89

Market probability

49.74%  /  50.26%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1806 vs 1700), a stronger serve (70.4% vs 54.4% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.16).

Player Comparison

1867.7 Elo 1858.5
1805.8 Elo (surface) 1700.1
294 Wins 214
202 Wins (surface) 106
11 Last 15 form 11
4 Head-to-head wins 4
1.179 Dominance ratio 0.722
23 Rank 15
28.6 Age 24.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

52.4%
53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%
65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%
44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%
26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%
45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75
0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%
63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%
68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%
50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%
39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%
54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40
0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16
0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

57.1%
54.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%
35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%
65.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%
49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 4 – 4 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-22

QF

Frances Tiafoe #23

Lorenzo Musetti #15

7-6 7-5
4 Aces 4
4 Double Faults 2
94 Service Points 81
49 First Serve In 36
35 First Serve Won 31
19 Second Serve Won 22
5 Break Points Saved 2
8 Break Points Faced 4
17 Winners 36
22 Unforced Errors 38
1.9 Average Odds 1.9
Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

QF

Lorenzo Musetti #7

Frances Tiafoe #16

6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2
8 Aces 4
3 Double Faults 0
108 Service Points 114
76 First Serve In 68
62 First Serve Won 43
15 Second Serve Won 25
2 Break Points Saved 6
3 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

R32

Frances Tiafoe #26

Lorenzo Musetti #18

6-3 6-2
2 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 4
41 Service Points 60
31 First Serve In 32
26 First Serve Won 19
6 Second Serve Won 12
0 Break Points Saved 8
0 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Stuttgart · 2023-06-12

QF

Frances Tiafoe #12

Lorenzo Musetti #17

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-2
10 Aces 17
4 Double Faults 7
110 Service Points 117
64 First Serve In 68
50 First Serve Won 53
21 Second Serve Won 18
3 Break Points Saved 4
6 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rome Masters · 2023-05-08

R32

Lorenzo Musetti #19

Frances Tiafoe #12

5-7 6-4 6-3
9 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 7
106 Service Points 109
78 First Serve In 55
52 First Serve Won 38
14 Second Serve Won 23
9 Break Points Saved 6
12 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard United Cup · 2023-01-02

F

Frances Tiafoe #19

Lorenzo Musetti #23

6-2 0-0 RET
3 Aces 0
1 Double Faults 0
27 Service Points 21
19 First Serve In 12
15 First Serve Won 8
3 Second Serve Won 3
3 Break Points Saved 1
3 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Acapulco · 2021-03-15

R16

Lorenzo Musetti #120

Frances Tiafoe #56

2-6 6-3 7-6(1)
3 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 3
110 Service Points 109
67 First Serve In 59
40 First Serve Won 34
20 Second Serve Won 23
6 Break Points Saved 6
12 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Parma CH · 2020-10-05

R16

Frances Tiafoe #67

Lorenzo Musetti #138

6-3 3-6 6-3
2 Aces 3
0 Double Faults 2
77 Service Points 70
48 First Serve In 40
36 First Serve Won 32
19 Second Serve Won 17
1 Break Points Saved 1
2 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Forli CH · 2020-09-21

R16

Lorenzo Musetti #181

Frances Tiafoe #67

6-4 5-7 6-2
6 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 2
86 Service Points 103
63 First Serve In 52
46 First Serve Won 35
12 Second Serve Won 29
4 Break Points Saved 6
6 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Frances Tiafoe — Last 10

L W W W W W W L W W

Lorenzo Musetti — Last 10

L W L W W W L W L W