ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Learner Tien

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 02:20

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

46.44%

Learner Tien

USA

53.56%

Average Odds

2.04 / 1.77

Market probability

46.46% / 53.54%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1844.4 Elo 1884.9

1781.3 Elo (surface) 1756.3

292 Wins 77

200 Wins (surface) 59

11 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.092 Dominance ratio 1.014

23 Rank 12

28.6 Age 20.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Learner Tien

1st Serve In %

52.4%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Learner Tien

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 1 – 1 Learner Tien

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-19

3. round

Frances Tiafoe #23

Learner Tien #12

6-4 4-6 6-4

8 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 6

86 Service Points 91

43 First Serve In 50

34 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 4

24 Winners 29

33 Unforced Errors 39

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Hard Delray Beach · 2026-02-16

QF

Learner Tien #23

Frances Tiafoe #28

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5

13 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 1

97 Service Points 98

64 First Serve In 64

44 First Serve Won 42

13 Second Serve Won 17

7 Break Points Saved 1

13 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2023-08-28

R128

Frances Tiafoe #10

Learner Tien #700

6-2 7-5 6-1

10 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 6

80 Service Points 116

47 First Serve In 71

37 First Serve Won 38

16 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 17

4 Break Points Faced 25