ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 03:15

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

45.48%

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

54.52%

Average Odds

2.74 / 1.45

Market probability

34.61% / 65.39%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1854.7 Elo 2005.6

1791.3 Elo (surface) 1913.3

293 Wins 13

201 Wins (surface) 2

11 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 3

1.089 Dominance ratio 1.004

23 Rank 4

28.6 Age 26.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Felix Auger Aliassime

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Felix Auger Aliassime

1st Serve In %

52.4%

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

77.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

49.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Felix Auger Aliassime

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 1 – 3 Felix Auger Aliassime

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-20

R16

Frances Tiafoe #23

Felix Auger Aliassime #4

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 13

1 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 62

28 First Serve In 37

20 First Serve Won 27

22 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 5

6 Winners 28

16 Unforced Errors 37

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Grass Halle · 2026-06-19

QF

Frances Tiafoe #26

Felix Auger Aliassime #4

3-6 6-3 7-6

5 Aces 25

3 Double Faults 3

109 Service Points 101

73 First Serve In 70

51 First Serve Won 57

22 Second Serve Won 12

7 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 5

13 Winners 42

41 Unforced Errors 58

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2022-10-31

QF

Felix Auger Aliassime #8

Frances Tiafoe #21

6-1 6-4

8 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 3

50 Service Points 69

36 First Serve In 39

31 First Serve Won 24

7 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 11

0 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barcelona · 2022-04-18

R16

Felix Auger Aliassime #9

Frances Tiafoe #29

7-5 6-4

6 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 3

66 Service Points 87

44 First Serve In 51

33 First Serve Won 37

11 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 8

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2021-08-30

R16

Felix Auger Aliassime #15

Frances Tiafoe #50

4-6 6-2 7-6(6) 6-4

24 Aces 10

8 Double Faults 3

127 Service Points 136

79 First Serve In 82

66 First Serve Won 58

25 Second Serve Won 30

4 Break Points Saved 12

5 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe — Last 10

Felix Auger Aliassime — Last 10