ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hard Cincinnati · SF 01:15

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

46.87%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

53.13%

Average Odds

1.96 / 1.85

Market probability

48.56% / 51.44%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1876.6 Elo 1887.9

1813.4 Elo (surface) 1867.5

295 Wins 182

203 Wins (surface) 125

12 Last 15 form 12

7 Head-to-head wins 1

1.198 Dominance ratio 1.102

23 Rank 22

28.6 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

52.4%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 7 – 1 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-23

SF

Frances Tiafoe #23

Brandon Nakashima #22

7-5 6-3

9 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 5

68 Service Points 75

34 First Serve In 39

21 First Serve Won 30

16 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 7

10 Break Points Faced 9

23 Winners 30

29 Unforced Errors 28

2.0 Average Odds 1.9

Hard Acapulco · 2026-02-23

SF

Frances Tiafoe #28

Brandon Nakashima #29

3-6 7-6(6) 6-4

7 Aces 16

2 Double Faults 1

106 Service Points 101

62 First Serve In 68

45 First Serve Won 48

19 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 7

10 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Houston · 2025-03-31

SF

Frances Tiafoe #17

Brandon Nakashima #33

6-4 7-6(3)

4 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 81

36 First Serve In 53

25 First Serve Won 33

13 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tokyo · 2024-09-25

R32

Brandon Nakashima #36

Frances Tiafoe #15

7-5 6-3

12 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 57

50 First Serve In 38

36 First Serve Won 25

8 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Atlanta · 2022-07-25

QF

Frances Tiafoe #29

Brandon Nakashima #56

6-4 6-2

8 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 2

48 Service Points 46

31 First Serve In 32

25 First Serve Won 23

13 Second Serve Won 5

1 Break Points Saved 0

1 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2022-03-21

R64

Frances Tiafoe #31

Brandon Nakashima #80

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4

14 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

89 Service Points 85

59 First Serve In 55

49 First Serve Won 44

14 Second Serve Won 22

1 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2022-03-07

R64

Frances Tiafoe #30

Brandon Nakashima #80

6-4 6-4

9 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 3

56 Service Points 68

33 First Serve In 32

27 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Acapulco · 2021-03-15

R32

Frances Tiafoe #56

Brandon Nakashima #145

6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(5)

9 Aces 6

8 Double Faults 2

108 Service Points 109

61 First Serve In 74

47 First Serve Won 54

27 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Dallas CH · 2020-02-03

R16

Frances Tiafoe #79

Brandon Nakashima #306

3-6 7-6(2) 7-5

5 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 10

107 Service Points 126

72 First Serve In 77

48 First Serve Won 53

18 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe — Last 10

Brandon Nakashima — Last 10