ATP tennis predict — Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

Grand Slam Hard US Open · QF 19:00

Predicted probability

Frances Tiafoe

USA

43.64%

Alex Michelsen

USA

56.36%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.24

Market probability

57.58% / 42.42%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Michelsen is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (65.7% vs 61.4% of service points won), a stronger return game (37.4% vs 33.3% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1861 vs 1855).

Player Comparison

1905.9 Elo 1886.4

1855.3 Elo (surface) 1860.8

300 Wins 104

208 Wins (surface) 76

11 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.862 Dominance ratio 1.090

12 Rank 46

28.6 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Alex Michelsen

1st Serve In %

52.4%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Frances Tiafoe Alex Michelsen

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.6%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

56.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe 2 – 0 Alex Michelsen

Hard US Open · 2026-09-08

QF

Frances Tiafoe #12

Alex Michelsen #46

5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6

10 Aces 21

4 Double Faults 9

181 Service Points 162

93 First Serve In 92

62 First Serve Won 67

46 Second Serve Won 33

15 Break Points Saved 9

23 Break Points Faced 17

50 Winners 55

43 Unforced Errors 61

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Clay Houston · 2025-03-31

QF

Frances Tiafoe #17

Alex Michelsen #34

7-5 6-1

4 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 5

58 Service Points 76

33 First Serve In 44

26 First Serve Won 28

14 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 12

3 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Dallas · 2024-02-05

R16

Frances Tiafoe #14

Alex Michelsen #75

6-4 6-3

1 Aces 9

1 Double Faults 4

56 Service Points 58

34 First Serve In 39

26 First Serve Won 21

9 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 8