ATP tennis predict — Florent Bax vs Takuya Kumasaka

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Florent Bax

France

55.48%

Takuya Kumasaka

Japan

44.52%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.72

Market probability

65.70% / 34.30%

Why This Prediction?

Florent Bax is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1524 vs 1483), better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7) and a higher Elo rating (1490 vs 1472).

Player Comparison

1489.7 Elo 1472.4

1523.9 Elo (surface) 1483.0

36 Wins (Challenger) 23

22 Wins (surface) 23

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.093 Dominance ratio 1.041

247 Rank 523

27.1 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Florent Bax

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-10.

Takuya Kumasaka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Florent Bax Takuya Kumasaka

1st Serve In %

74.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

85.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

1.00

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Florent Bax Takuya Kumasaka

Break Points Saved %

100.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

27.3%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Florent Bax 0 – 0 Takuya Kumasaka

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Florent Bax #247

Takuya Kumasaka #523

7-6 6-3

2 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 4

74 Service Points 86

46 First Serve In 39

29 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 25

5 Break Points Saved 9

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Florent Bax vs Takuya Kumasaka — Prediction