ATP tennis predict — Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga

ATP Clay Umag · R16

Predicted probability

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

73.92%

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Argentina

26.08%

Average Odds

1.37 / 3.06

Market probability

69.07% / 30.93%

Why This Prediction?

Flavio Cobolli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1811 vs 1625), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1787 vs 1648) and a stronger serve (66.5% vs 57.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1810.6 Elo 1625.5

1786.6 Elo (surface) 1647.7

130 Wins 34

54 Wins (surface) 26

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 0.915

9 Rank 67

24.2 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Flavio Cobolli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Flavio Cobolli Roman Andres Burruchaga

1st Serve In %

58.0%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.7%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Flavio Cobolli Roman Andres Burruchaga

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.5%

63.7%

Break Points Converted %

32.2%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Flavio Cobolli 0 – 0 Roman Andres Burruchaga

Clay Umag · 2026-07-15

R16

Roman Andres Burruchaga #67

Flavio Cobolli #9

6-2 6-4

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

68 Service Points 54

33 First Serve In 32

21 First Serve Won 25

15 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

16 Winners 16

39 Unforced Errors 25

3.1 Average Odds 1.4

Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga — Prediction