ATP tennis predict — Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils

ATP Hard Cincinnati · SF 19:30

Predicted probability

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

34.57%

Arthur Fils

France

65.43%

Average Odds

3.13 / 1.37

Market probability

30.44% / 69.56%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1887 vs 1688), a higher Elo rating (1892 vs 1831) and a stronger serve (63.0% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1831.2 Elo 1892.1

1687.7 Elo (surface) 1886.7

134 Wins 127

67 Wins (surface) 74

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.027 Dominance ratio 0.850

10 Rank 21

24.3 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Flavio Cobolli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Flavio Cobolli Arthur Fils

1st Serve In %

58.0%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.5%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.7%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Flavio Cobolli Arthur Fils

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.5%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

32.2%

47.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Flavio Cobolli 0 – 2 Arthur Fils

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-22

SF

Arthur Fils #21

Flavio Cobolli #10

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 3

43 Service Points 58

26 First Serve In 33

19 First Serve Won 27

8 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 2

3 Winners 22

22 Unforced Errors 27

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2025-04-07

R32

Arthur Fils #15

Flavio Cobolli #36

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 2

53 Service Points 54

32 First Serve In 28

24 First Serve Won 15

14 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard NextGen Finals · 2023-11-27

RR

Arthur Fils #36

Flavio Cobolli #100

4-1 4-2 4-2

5 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 3

48 Service Points 39

32 First Serve In 19

23 First Serve Won 11

11 Second Serve Won 8