ATP tennis predict — Filippo Romano vs Ryan Peniston

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · qualification - round of 16 12:30

Predicted probability

Filippo Romano

Italy

58.65%

Ryan Peniston

Great Britain

41.35%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.03

Market probability

54.13% / 45.87%

Why This Prediction?

Filippo Romano is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1692 vs 1539), fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.25) and a stronger serve (83.7% vs 57.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1570.9 Elo 1566.8

1692.3 Elo (surface) 1539.1

37 Wins (Challenger) 125

11 Wins (surface) 98

4 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.042 Dominance ratio 1.055

307 Rank 540

21.2 Age 30.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Filippo Romano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Ryan Peniston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Filippo Romano Ryan Peniston

1st Serve In %

76.7%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

87.9%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

70.0%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

77.3%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.00

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

65.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.49

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Filippo Romano Ryan Peniston

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

80.0%

27.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.9%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.1%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Filippo Romano and Ryan Peniston have never played each other.

Filippo Romano vs Ryan Peniston — Prediction