ATP tennis predict — Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Filippo Romano

Italy

35.08%

Otto Virtanen

Finland

64.92%

Average Odds

3.33 / 1.30

Market probability

28.08% / 71.92%

Why This Prediction?

Otto Virtanen is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1785 vs 1599), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1588 vs 1497) and more wins on clay courts (14 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1599.2 Elo 1785.0

1497.3 Elo (surface) 1588.2

35 Wins (Challenger) 124

16 Wins (surface) 16

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.030 Dominance ratio 0.884

300 Rank 115

21.1 Age 25.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Filippo Romano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Otto Virtanen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–8L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Filippo Romano Otto Virtanen

1st Serve In %

76.7%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

87.9%

76.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

70.0%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

77.3%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.00

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.9%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Filippo Romano Otto Virtanen

Break Points Saved %

—

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

80.0%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.9%

30.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Filippo Romano 0 – 1 Otto Virtanen

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Otto Virtanen #115

Filippo Romano #300

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

71 Service Points 70

27 First Serve In 36

19 First Serve Won 29

23 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Grass Birmingham challenger · 2026-06-05

QF

Otto Virtanen #134

Filippo Romano #368

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 10

4 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 63

44 First Serve In 39

31 First Serve Won 33

14 Second Serve Won 13

9 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 4

19 Winners 30

28 Unforced Errors 20

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Filippo Romano vs Otto Virtanen — Prediction