ATP tennis predict — Filip Peliwo vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Filip Peliwo

Poland

31.66%

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

68.34%

Average Odds

4.49 / 1.15

Market probability

20.39% / 79.61%

Why This Prediction?

Ivan Marrero Curbelo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1509 vs 1461), a stronger return game (45.6% vs 31.9% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1532 vs 1466).

Player Comparison

1465.9 Elo 1532.3

1460.9 Elo (surface) 1509.4

112 Wins (Challenger) 24

100 Wins (surface) 14

4 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.733 Dominance ratio 1.335

547 Rank 360

32.5 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Filip Peliwo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Filip Peliwo Ivan Marrero Curbelo

1st Serve In %

55.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.38

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Filip Peliwo Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Break Points Saved %

54.8%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.0%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Filip Peliwo 0 – 0 Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Ivan Marrero Curbelo #360

Filip Peliwo #547

6-1 3-6 6-3

3 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 0

64 Service Points 71

36 First Serve In 44

25 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 4.5

Filip Peliwo vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo — Prediction