ATP tennis predict — Felix Auger Aliassime vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 01:10

Predicted probability

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

69.96%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

30.04%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.76

Market probability

80.00% / 20.00%

Why This Prediction?

Felix Auger Aliassime is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1984 vs 1833), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1892 vs 1621) and a stronger serve (70.7% vs 64.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1983.7 Elo 1833.1

1892.1 Elo (surface) 1621.3

12 Wins 81

1 Wins (surface) 14

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.122 Dominance ratio 0.995

4 Rank 51

26.0 Age 24.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Felix Auger Aliassime

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Felix Auger Aliassime Juan Manuel Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

64.8%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.5%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

53.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.0%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.9%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.80

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.0%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.2%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Felix Auger Aliassime Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.4%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

69.1%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Felix Auger Aliassime 0 – 1 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-19

3. round

Felix Auger Aliassime #4

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #51

7-5 6-1

3 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 5

55 Service Points 54

32 First Serve In 31

20 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 1

10 Winners 21

22 Unforced Errors 22

1.2 Average Odds 4.8

Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

R64

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #126

Felix Auger Aliassime #19

7-6(5) 6-4

5 Aces 8

0 Double Faults 3

77 Service Points 67

57 First Serve In 50

45 First Serve Won 37

11 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Prediction