ATP tennis predict — Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Luka Pavlovic

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · qualification - round of 16 23:00

Predicted probability

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

34.10%

Luka Pavlovic

France

65.90%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.53

Market probability

40.58% / 59.42%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Pavlovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1691 vs 1373), more aces per game (0.39 vs 0.20) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 59.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1626.6 Elo 1603.3

1372.9 Elo (surface) 1691.5

150 Wins (Challenger) 56

6 Wins (surface) 10

10 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.829 Dominance ratio 0.928

567 Rank 207

28.5 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Felipe Meligeni Alves Luka Pavlovic

1st Serve In %

67.7%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.0%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

24.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.4%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.5%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Felipe Meligeni Alves Luka Pavlovic

Break Points Saved %

65.7%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

30.1%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

31.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Felipe Meligeni Alves 1 – 0 Luka Pavlovic

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Felipe Meligeni Alves #567

Luka Pavlovic #207

7-6 7-6

2 Aces 16

0 Double Faults 1

100 Service Points 77

70 First Serve In 43

48 First Serve Won 32

17 Second Serve Won 17

7 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Mexico City CH · 2025-04-07

F

Felipe Meligeni Alves #153

Luka Pavlovic #295

6-3 6-3

1 Aces 10

0 Double Faults 7

47 Service Points 54

33 First Serve In 27

28 First Serve Won 17

9 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Luka Pavlovic — Prediction