ATP tennis predict — Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay Antofagasta challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

42.35%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

57.65%

Average Odds

1.66 / 1.93

Market probability

53.76% / 46.24%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Pablo Varillas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1708 vs 1650), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1726 vs 1685) and a better head-to-head record against Felipe Meligeni Alves (4-1).

Player Comparison

1650.2 Elo 1708.1

1685.3 Elo (surface) 1725.6

153 Wins (Challenger) 225

145 Wins (surface) 222

9 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 4

0.865 Dominance ratio 0.934

463 Rank 193

28.6 Age 31.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Felipe Meligeni Alves Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

67.7%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.2%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.0%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.9%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

56.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Felipe Meligeni Alves Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

65.7%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

30.1%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

54.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

43.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Felipe Meligeni Alves 1 – 4 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay Concepcion CH · 2026-01-27

R32

Juan Pablo Varillas #244

Felipe Meligeni Alves #225

7-5 6-2

3 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 64

31 First Serve In 32

23 First Serve Won 18

17 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Santiago · 2025-02-24

Q2

Felipe Meligeni Alves #194

Juan Pablo Varillas #188

6-4 6-2

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 0

49 Service Points 59

33 First Serve In 43

27 First Serve Won 28

10 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Lima CH · 2023-11-06

R32

Juan Pablo Varillas #67

Felipe Meligeni Alves #135

7-6(4) 6-7(8) 6-4

5 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

125 Service Points 141

71 First Serve In 106

49 First Serve Won 64

29 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 12

10 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Santiago · 2021-03-08

Q3

Juan Pablo Varillas #171

Felipe Meligeni Alves #238

6-4 6-1

5 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

46 Service Points 46

25 First Serve In 35

22 First Serve Won 22

15 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Guayaquil CH · 2020-11-16

R32

Juan Pablo Varillas #157

Felipe Meligeni Alves #304

7-5 6-4

2 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 0

64 Service Points 57

41 First Serve In 36

32 First Serve Won 25

8 Second Serve Won 7

6 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Felipe Meligeni Alves — Last 10

Juan Pablo Varillas — Last 10