ATP tennis predict — Federico Iannaccone vs Maxim Mrva

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · R16 10:10

Predicted probability

Federico Iannaccone

Italy

27.12%

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

72.88%

Average Odds

3.97 / 1.22

Market probability

23.51% / 76.49%

Why This Prediction?

Maxim Mrva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1769 vs 1524), a higher Elo rating (1748 vs 1558) and more wins on clay courts (38 vs 32).

Player Comparison

1557.6 Elo 1748.3

1524.1 Elo (surface) 1769.4

39 Wins (Challenger) 53

32 Wins (surface) 38

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.303 Dominance ratio 1.035

643 Rank 212

27.4 Age 19.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Iannaccone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Iannaccone Maxim Mrva

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

71.8%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

57.9%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

40.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.2%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Iannaccone Maxim Mrva

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

53.7%

47.9%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Iannaccone 0 – 1 Maxim Mrva

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Federico Iannaccone #643

Maxim Mrva #212

6-4 6-4

1 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

71 Service Points 64

52 First Serve In 31

33 First Serve Won 21

10 Second Serve Won 13

8 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.0 Average Odds 1.2

Hard Hersonissos 2 CH · 2026-03-09

R16

Maxim Mrva #305

Federico Iannaccone #651

6-4 6-7(3) 6-0

5 Aces 0

6 Double Faults 2

83 Service Points 85

45 First Serve In 51

29 First Serve Won 30

22 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Federico Iannaccone vs Maxim Mrva — Prediction