ATP tennis predict — Federico Coria vs Francesco Forti

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Federico Coria

Argentina

64.18%

Francesco Forti

Italy

35.82%

Average Odds

2.08 / 1.69

Market probability

44.83% / 55.17%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Coria is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1676 vs 1548), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1688 vs 1569) and more wins on clay courts (255 vs 74).

Player Comparison

1675.9 Elo 1548.1

1687.6 Elo (surface) 1569.0

259 Wins (Challenger) 92

255 Wins (surface) 74

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.963 Dominance ratio 1.095

779 Rank 371

34.4 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Coria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Francesco Forti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–5L · 58.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Coria Francesco Forti

1st Serve In %

66.2%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%

67.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

21.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.0%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.2%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

37.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Coria Francesco Forti

Break Points Saved %

56.4%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

21.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Coria 0 – 0 Francesco Forti

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Francesco Forti #371

Federico Coria #779

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 1

67 Service Points 53

35 First Serve In 35

20 First Serve Won 30

17 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Federico Coria vs Francesco Forti — Prediction