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Federico Coria vs Eduardo Ribeiro — Prediction

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · R16 15:00

Predicted probability

Federico Coria

Argentina

73.59%

Eduardo Ribeiro

Brazil

26.41%

Average Odds

2.34  /  1.52

Market probability

39.38%  /  60.62%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Coria is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1671 vs 1573), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1683 vs 1577) and more wins on clay courts (256 vs 51).

Player Comparison

1671.3 Elo 1572.8
1682.9 Elo (surface) 1577.4
260 Wins (Challenger) 54
256 Wins (surface) 51
8 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.035 Dominance ratio 0.992
902 Rank 355
34.5 Age 28.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Coria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Eduardo Ribeiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Coria Eduardo Ribeiro

1st Serve In %

66.2%
66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.5%
61.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%
42.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%
33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%
48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.29
0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24
0.06

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.0%
68.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.2%
66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%
54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%
35.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%
42.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.12
0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Coria Eduardo Ribeiro

Break Points Saved %

56.4%
68.4%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%
39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.0%
52.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%
39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Coria and Eduardo Ribeiro have never played each other.

Federico Coria — Last 10

W L L L L L W L W L

Eduardo Ribeiro — Last 10

W L W W L L L W L L