ATP tennis predict — Federico Cina vs Lorenzo Giustino

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · qualification - quarterfinal

Predicted probability

Federico Cina

Italy

68.80%

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

31.20%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.33

Market probability

71.77% / 28.23%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1658 vs 1566), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1633 vs 1609) and a stronger return game (38.8% vs 38.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1658 Elo 1566.5

1632.7 Elo (surface) 1608.8

9 Wins 40

5 Wins (surface) 25

7 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.020 Dominance ratio 0.892

184 Rank 196

19.3 Age 34.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Cina Lorenzo Giustino

1st Serve In %

57.3%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

47.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Cina Lorenzo Giustino

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

49.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.0%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

45.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Cina 0 – 0 Lorenzo Giustino

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-19

qualification - quarterfinal

Federico Cina #184

Lorenzo Giustino #201

6-4 6-2

2 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 58

31 First Serve In 26

22 First Serve Won 14

10 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Federico Cina vs Lorenzo Giustino — Prediction