ATP tennis predict — Federico Cina vs Elias Ymer

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Federico Cina

Italy

65.27%

Elias Ymer

Sweden

34.73%

Average Odds

1.37 / 2.70

Market probability

66.34% / 33.66%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1677 vs 1584), a stronger return game (36.9% vs 31.6% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1658 vs 1632).

Player Comparison

1657.7 Elo 1631.9

1677.4 Elo (surface) 1583.7

45 Wins (Challenger) 231

29 Wins (surface) 88

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.958 Dominance ratio 1.091

181 Rank 203

19.4 Age 30.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Cina Elias Ymer

1st Serve In %

57.3%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Cina Elias Ymer

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.0%

39.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Cina 0 – 0 Elias Ymer

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Federico Cina #178

Elias Ymer #208

6-3 7-5

6 Aces 3

7 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 63

28 First Serve In 34

21 First Serve Won 19

20 Second Serve Won 14

5 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Federico Cina vs Elias Ymer — Prediction