ATP tennis predict — Federico Cina vs Daniel Michalski

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Federico Cina

Italy

65.42%

Daniel Michalski

Poland

34.58%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.16

Market probability

70.38% / 29.62%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1645 vs 1530), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1614 vs 1510) and a stronger serve (63.3% vs 60.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1644.8 Elo 1530.2

1614.2 Elo (surface) 1509.7

8 Wins 1

4 Wins (surface) 0

6 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.929 Dominance ratio 0.745

184 Rank 299

19.3 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Daniel Michalski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Cina Daniel Michalski

1st Serve In %

57.3%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.7%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

22.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

44.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

38.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Cina Daniel Michalski

Break Points Saved %

52.2%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.0%

32.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

40.8%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

55.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Cina 0 – 1 Daniel Michalski

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-18

qualification - round of 16

Federico Cina #184

Daniel Michalski #299

6-2 3-6 6-1

9 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 6

65 Service Points 81

38 First Serve In 35

30 First Serve Won 25

16 Second Serve Won 21

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Hard Phan Thiet 1 CH · 2026-01-19

R16

Daniel Michalski #257

Federico Cina #237

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

51 Service Points 54

25 First Serve In 34

17 First Serve Won 18

15 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Federico Cina vs Daniel Michalski — Prediction