ATP tennis predict — Federico Bondioli vs Max Alcala Gurri

Challenger Clay Cordenons challenger · F

Predicted probability

Federico Bondioli

Italy

41.25%

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

58.75%

Average Odds

2.68 / 1.43

Market probability

34.79% / 65.21%

Why This Prediction?

Max Alcala Gurri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1711 vs 1636), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1729 vs 1661) and a stronger return game (42.1% vs 37.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1636.3 Elo 1710.7

1661.2 Elo (surface) 1729.1

35 Wins (Challenger) 51

34 Wins (surface) 51

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.895 Dominance ratio 1.106

346 Rank 229

21.2 Age 23.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Bondioli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Max Alcala Gurri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Bondioli Max Alcala Gurri

1st Serve In %

69.3%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.3%

52.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.1%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.08

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.52

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.4%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Bondioli Max Alcala Gurri

Break Points Saved %

54.2%

45.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Bondioli 0 – 0 Max Alcala Gurri

Clay Cordenons challenger · 2026-07-19

F

Max Alcala Gurri #181

Federico Bondioli #290

6-2 6-0

1 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

53 Service Points 38

29 First Serve In 28

15 First Serve Won 21

6 Second Serve Won 6

8 Break Points Saved 2

14 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Federico Bondioli vs Max Alcala Gurri — Prediction