ATP tennis predict — Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

38.81%

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

61.19%

Average Odds

2.40 / 1.52

Market probability

38.78% / 61.22%

Why This Prediction?

Svyatoslav Gulin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1640 vs 1549), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1656 vs 1542) and a stronger serve (63.6% vs 58.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1548.6 Elo 1640.4

1542.1 Elo (surface) 1655.7

72 Wins (Challenger) 35

60 Wins (surface) 29

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.903 Dominance ratio 0.880

476 Rank 565

26.3 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Svyatoslav Gulin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Svyatoslav Gulin

1st Serve In %

66.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.35

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.0%

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Svyatoslav Gulin

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.7%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

32.1%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Arnaboldi and Svyatoslav Gulin have never played each other.

Federico Arnaboldi vs Svyatoslav Gulin — Prediction