ATP tennis predict — Federico Arnaboldi vs Peetu Pohjola

Challenger Clay Tampere challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

79.36%

Peetu Pohjola

Finland

20.64%

Average Odds

1.02 / 15.18

Market probability

93.70% / 6.30%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Arnaboldi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1457 vs 1411), more career match wins (67 vs 0) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1470 vs 1415).

Player Comparison

1456.6 Elo 1411.2

1469.8 Elo (surface) 1414.5

67 Wins (Challenger) 0

55 Wins (surface) 0

7 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.848 Dominance ratio 0.705

527 Rank 1637

26.1 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Peetu Pohjola

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Peetu Pohjola

1st Serve In %

66.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.35

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

58.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

34.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Peetu Pohjola

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

38.7%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

44.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Arnaboldi 0 – 0 Peetu Pohjola

Clay Tampere challenger · 2026-07-19

qualification - 1. round

Peetu Pohjola #1642

Federico Arnaboldi #526

1-6 6-4 6-2

0 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 4

80 Service Points 93

49 First Serve In 55

27 First Serve Won 36

19 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

15.2 Average Odds 1.0

Federico Arnaboldi vs Peetu Pohjola — Prediction