ATP tennis predict — Federico Arnaboldi vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Challenger Clay Como challenger · R16 17:30

Predicted probability

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

19.82%

Juan Pablo Varillas

Peru

80.18%

Average Odds

3.43 / 1.28

Market probability

27.18% / 72.82%

Why This Prediction?

Juan Pablo Varillas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1661 vs 1447), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1694 vs 1460) and more wins on clay courts (215 vs 56).

Player Comparison

1446.7 Elo 1660.6

1459.8 Elo (surface) 1694.2

68 Wins (Challenger) 218

56 Wins (surface) 215

6 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.902 Dominance ratio 0.958

521 Rank 234

26.2 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Juan Pablo Varillas

1st Serve In %

66.8%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Juan Pablo Varillas

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

69.0%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

54.1%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Arnaboldi 0 – 1 Juan Pablo Varillas

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

Federico Arnaboldi #521

5-7 7-5 6-1

7 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 108

42 First Serve In 64

29 First Serve Won 40

19 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Clay Como challenger · 2026-09-02

R16

Juan Pablo Varillas #234

Federico Arnaboldi #521

6-3 6-1

3 Aces 2

6 Double Faults 0

75 Service Points 42

40 First Serve In 30

25 First Serve Won 25

10 Second Serve Won 6

12 Break Points Saved 1

17 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Clay Sanremo CH · 2023-03-27

R32

Juan Pablo Varillas #88

Federico Arnaboldi #479

6-4 7-6(1)

3 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 4

65 Service Points 82

32 First Serve In 47

26 First Serve Won 30

25 Second Serve Won 21

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Federico Arnaboldi vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Federico Arnaboldi — Last 10

Juan Pablo Varillas — Last 10