ATP tennis predict — Federico Arnaboldi vs Florian Broska

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 1. round 17:30

Predicted probability

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

47.84%

Florian Broska

Germany

52.16%

Average Odds

2.09 / 1.66

Market probability

44.27% / 55.73%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1513.9 Elo 1664.8

1505.6 Elo (surface) 1629.5

70 Wins (Challenger) 26

58 Wins (surface) 13

6 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.903 Dominance ratio 1.255

495 Rank 327

26.3 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Florian Broska

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Florian Broska

1st Serve In %

66.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.35

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

60.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Florian Broska

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

48.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Arnaboldi 0 – 0 Florian Broska

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-21

1. round

Federico Arnaboldi #495

Florian Broska #327

6-1 7-6

4 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 24

15 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Federico Arnaboldi vs Florian Broska — Prediction