ATP tennis predict — Federico Arnaboldi vs Federico Bondioli

Challenger Clay Como challenger · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

29.24%

Federico Bondioli

Italy

70.76%

Average Odds

2.70 / 1.39

Market probability

33.99% / 66.01%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Bondioli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1643 vs 1432) and a higher Elo rating (1620 vs 1422).

Player Comparison

1422.3 Elo 1619.8

1432.1 Elo (surface) 1643.4

67 Wins (Challenger) 35

55 Wins (surface) 34

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.850 Dominance ratio 0.978

521 Rank 304

26.2 Age 21.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Federico Bondioli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Federico Bondioli

1st Serve In %

66.8%

69.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

63.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

41.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.6%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Federico Bondioli

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

54.2%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Arnaboldi 0 – 0 Federico Bondioli

Clay Como challenger · 2026-08-31

1. round

Federico Arnaboldi #521

Federico Bondioli #304

2-4

2 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

22 Service Points 22

11 First Serve In 16

7 First Serve Won 11

6 Second Serve Won 3

6 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Federico Arnaboldi vs Federico Bondioli — Prediction