ATP tennis predict — Federico Arnaboldi vs Andrea De Marchi

Challenger Clay Palermo challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

80.99%

Andrea De Marchi

Italy

19.01%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.23

Market probability

58.99% / 41.01%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Arnaboldi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1552 vs 1445), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1544 vs 1449) and more career match wins (73 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1551.8 Elo 1445.3

1544.2 Elo (surface) 1449.2

73 Wins (Challenger) 1

61 Wins (surface) 1

6 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.903 Dominance ratio 0.837

476 Rank -

26.3 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Andrea De Marchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-08-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Andrea De Marchi

1st Serve In %

66.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.35

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.4%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

55.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.1%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.06

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Arnaboldi Andrea De Marchi

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.9%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

32.9%

70.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Arnaboldi and Andrea De Marchi have never played each other.

Federico Arnaboldi vs Andrea De Marchi — Prediction