ATP tennis predict — Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo Arnaldi

ATP Clay Umag · R16

Predicted probability

Federico Agustin Gomez

Argentina

24.77%

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

75.23%

Average Odds

3.81 / 1.26

Market probability

24.85% / 75.15%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Arnaldi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1795 vs 1620), a higher Elo rating (1769 vs 1608) and a stronger return game (44.4% vs 34.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1607.7 Elo 1769.0

1620.0 Elo (surface) 1795.5

20 Wins 99

10 Wins (surface) 37

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.036 Dominance ratio 1.029

209 Rank 34

29.6 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Federico Agustin Gomez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Agustin Gomez Matteo Arnaldi

1st Serve In %

62.1%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.5%

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.5%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Federico Agustin Gomez Matteo Arnaldi

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.5%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.3%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Federico Agustin Gomez 0 – 0 Matteo Arnaldi

Clay Umag · 2026-07-15

R16

Matteo Arnaldi #34

Federico Agustin Gomez #209

6-3 5-7 6-3

5 Aces 8

6 Double Faults 2

93 Service Points 88

61 First Serve In 43

41 First Serve Won 38

13 Second Serve Won 21

7 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 6

20 Winners 26

50 Unforced Errors 44

1.3 Average Odds 3.8

Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Federico Agustin Gomez — Last 10

Matteo Arnaldi — Last 10